Adjustable assumptions
Poke the model
Project the series forward and watch uncertainty grow. Source, method, and the honest-axis check stay visible the whole time.
Editing: Real GDP growth, steady expansion
GDP growth?
Axis fairness mode
Honest lets the engine pick a fair baseline. As saved shows the axis stored with this explainer. Truncated deliberately clips the y-axis so you can see how a misleading scale exaggerates small changes — the honest-axis check will flag it.
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Axis fairness mode
Honest lets the engine pick a fair baseline. As saved shows the axis stored with this explainer. Truncated deliberately clips the y-axis so you can see how a misleading scale exaggerates small changes — the honest-axis check will flag it.- Part of the data falls outside the visible axis range and would be cut off.
View the data behind this chart?
Data table
The exact numbers charted above, including the uncertainty band (low–high) and which points are your projections rather than observed data. This is the screen-reader-friendly, copy-pasteable view of the same series.
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Data table
The exact numbers charted above, including the uncertainty band (low–high) and which points are your projections rather than observed data. This is the screen-reader-friendly, copy-pasteable view of the same series.| Period | Value | Uncertainty band |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -2.2% | -2.33% – -2.07% |
| 2021 | 5.8% | 5.45% – 6.15% |
| 2022 | 2.5% | 2.35% – 2.65% |
| 2023 | 2.9% | 2.73% – 3.07% |
| 2024 | 2.4% | 2.26% – 2.54% |
| 2025 | 2.6% | 2.44% – 2.76% |
Plain-language walkthrough
GDP growth rose from -2.2 % in 2020 to 2.6 % in 2025 — a change of 4.8 % (218.2%), a large move. The trend turned 4 times (around 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), so a single straight line would oversimplify it. There are enough points to describe the trend, but not to make strong claims about turning points. Read the real magnitude off a zero-baseline chart — not a zoomed-in one.
Poke the model — adjustable assumptions?
Reader-adjustable assumptions
These sliders project the series forward under your stated rate, then widen the uncertainty band the further out you go. Nothing here changes the underlying data — it just shows how sensitive the story is to your assumptions.
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Reader-adjustable assumptions
These sliders project the series forward under your stated rate, then widen the uncertainty band the further out you go. Nothing here changes the underlying data — it just shows how sensitive the story is to your assumptions.Project the series forward and watch the uncertainty band widen with the horizon. The band starts at ±6% from sample size.
Source · Method · Honest-axis check
- Method
- Annual percent change in real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product. Illustrative figures; replace with BEA NIPA tables for production.
- Uncertainty
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Uncertainty band
A ±% range around the line, computed from how many observations the series has. Fewer data points → a wider band → treat the trend as lower-confidence. It is honesty about sample size, not a forecast. - With 6 observations, this chart shows a ±6% band. Treat it as moderate-confidence.
$ honest-axis check — GDP growthFAIL 1 issue(s) found⚑ clips-data: Part of the data falls outside the visible axis range and would be cut off.→ suggested fix: yMin=-3.0103999999999997, yMax=6.8264confidence: moderate (n=6)uncertainty band: ±6% from sample size
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